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Seasonality "The second half of June is historically positive for the S&P with an average return of 45bps from June 17-July 1 (data from 1928-present). The next 1w is minimally negative but we've seen a rally in the days leading up to July." #stonkdata

The current Bitcoin market is showing a subtle balance. On one hand, institutions continue to accumulate, providing support; on the other hand, it is under pressure from geopolitical risks. The short-term trend will mainly depend on the further developments in the Middle East situation and whether it can break through the key resistance level of 105,500 USD. From a technical indicator perspective, the market shows obvious weakness signals. The moving average system has deteriorated, with the 10-day moving average crossing below the 50-day moving average (currently around $105,200), and the daily closing price has remained below the 50-day moving average for three consecutive days, indicating that the medium-term trend is turning weak. On the 4-hour chart, the short, medium, and long-term moving averages (5-50-200) display a bearish divergence, further limiting the price's rebound space. The momentum indicator MACD also shows signs of accelerated downward movement. The daily MACD histogram has been in negative territory for 5 consecutive days, and the fast and slow lines are deeply immersed below the zero axis without any convergence trend, indicating a continuous strengthening of bearish power. The "double death cross" appearing on the 4-hour chart further clearly conveys the signal of weak rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also formed a weak structure. The daily RSI (42.3) is under pressure from the descending trend line and has failed to break through the neutral threshold of 50, reflecting a depletion of rebound momentum. It is worth noting that on June 17, when the price hit $109,000, a bearish divergence occurred (the price reached a new high while the RSI did not), indicating the presence of reversal risk. The Bollinger Bands volatility indicator also shows a characteristic of expanding downward, with the daily Bollinger Bands opening downwards, and the price running closely along the lower band (103,400 USD). Although it shows oversold conditions, the overall trend has not changed. Based on the current technical analysis, the trading suggestions for June 21 are as follows: Bitcoin: Short in the range of $104,000 - $103,500, with a target level of $103,000 - $101,800. Ethereum: Short can be made in the range of 2450-2420 USD, with target levels at 2380-2310 USD.

Currently, SOL has formed a 4-hour level fall breakout accompanied by an internal k-line (inside bar) pattern. This technical pattern is very similar to Ethereum's breakout at the $1700 level earlier. From a technical perspective, this pattern appears quite standard. If the market goes with the trend, it may continue the downward trend. However, it is worth noting that if this internal candlestick pattern is broken upwards, it will require an adjustment to the judgment of the short-term trend, which may shift to a fluctuating downward trend, waiting for a rebound before looking for short opportunities. Conversely, if the price can directly break down through the current internal K-line structure, the market is very likely to accelerate downward to test the support level around 123. This is just a personal insight based on technical analysis, and investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance and a more comprehensive set of market factors.