ONDO Price Prediction 2025: Will Ondo Finance See the Rise of RWA?

Recent developments and RWA track layout of Ondo Finance

As a leading project in the tokenization track of Real World Asset (RWA), Ondo Finance (ONDO) has recently accelerated the integration of traditional financial assets and blockchain through product innovation, compliant cooperation, and ecological expansion; its strategic positioning and ution efficiency have laid the foundation for the long-term value of the ONDO token.

Product Innovation: Tokenized Government Bonds and Institutional-Grade Liquidity

In 2024, Ondo Finance launched the tokenized US government bond product OUSG, which brought BlackRock’s Short-Term Treasury Bond ETF (ICSH) onto the blockchain, allowing users to purchase fragmented shares using the stablecoin USDC. Within 6 months of its launch, the product’s AUM exceeded 750 million USD, with a stable annualized return rate of 4.8%-5.2%, making it one of the most successful use cases in the RWA field.

Recently, ONDO further launched OUSG V2, supporting multi-chain deployment (Ethereum, Solana, Sui) and introducing automatic compound interest, significantly reducing the participation threshold for small and medium investors. On-chain data shows that after the launch of the V2 version, the daily trading volume of OUSG increased by 300%, the number of holding addresses exceeded 120,000, becoming the benchmark for “risk-free returns” in the DeFi market.

Compliance breakthrough: Deep cooperation with TradFi giants

The compliance process of ONDO made significant progress in 2024, these collaborations not only enhance the endorsement of OUSG’s credit, but also open up the channel for traditional institutional funds to enter RWA:

• Morgan Stanley Strategic Investments: In September 2024, Morgan Stanley led a $50 million Series B financing for ONDO through its blockchain fund, and plans to include OUSG in its wealth management product pool;
• Singapore MAS License Application: Ondo’s subsidiary, Ondo Asia, has submitted a Capital Markets Services (CMS) license application to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). If approved, it will become the first RWA agreement to receive mainstream regulatory approval;
• US Treasury clearing network access: ONDO has reached a cooperation with DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) to achieve real-time settlement of on-chain US Treasury shares with TradFi clearing .

Token economic model upgrade: Strengthening the value of staking and governance

In Q4 2024, ONDO will release the ONDO 2.0 economic model, with core adjustments including:

• Diversification of staking rewards: 40% of protocol revenue will be allocated to ONDO stakers (up from 25%), and the sources of rewards will be expanded to include trading fees, government bond spreads, and institutional service fees;
• Token Burning Mechanism: 10% of the net income is used for monthly repurchasing and burning of ONDO, with an expected circulation reduction of 8%-12% by 2025;
• Governance power decentralization: allowing ONDO holders to vote on adding supported RWA asset types (such as corporate bonds, real estate REITs).

Currently, the staking rate of ONDO has surged from 18% to 34%, and the number of whale addresses (holding over 1 million ONDO) has increased by 22%, indicating enhanced confidence among long-term holders.

2025 ONDO Price Prediction: RWA Wave and Value Reassessment

Market Trend: RWA Track Breakout Threshold

According to the prediction of Boston Consulting Group (BCG), the global RWA tokenized market size is expected to reach $160 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 68%. 2025 will be a key turning point:

• Fed rate cut cycle: If the Fed starts cutting rates in 2025, the decline in US bond yields may drive funds towards high-yield alternatives like RWA (such as OUSG);
• Institutional entry accelerates: Asset management giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity have initiated RWA pilots, and ONDO, as a compliance benchmark, may become the preferred partner;
• Clarification of regulatory framework: the EU MiCA regulations, the classification details of RWA by the US SEC are implemented, reducing market uncertainty.

Technical Analysis: Possibility of Breaking Historical Highs

From a data perspective, ONDO has been on the rise since its launch on Gate.io in January 2024, with an opening price of $0.03. As of now, the increase has exceeded 40 times. Currently, ONDO’s trend has formed an ascending triangle pattern, with the RSI indicator stable above 50 and the MACD histogram gradually converging towards the zero axis, indicating a gradual bullish control. If it breaks through $2.1 (historical high in 2024), there is no significant resistance above, and the theoretical target could be as high as $3.4 (Fibonacci 161.8% extension level).

Risk and challenge: The core variables of RWA implementation

Uncertainty of regulatory policies

• US SEC attitude differentiation: If SEC classifies tokenized national debt as security tokens, it may require ONDO to apply for a Broker-Dealer license, increasing compliance costs;
• Cross-border clearing barriers: Regulatory differences among countries on the cross-border flow of on-chain assets may limit OUSG’s global expansion.

The counterattack of traditional finance

• BlackRock self-issued currency: If BlackRock launches its own tokenized asset management platform (such as BUIDL extension), it may directly impact ONDO’s market share;
• Banking Alliance Snipe: Banking alliances like RWA (such as RegA+ platform) formed by institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup may squeeze Ondo’s institutional clients with the advantage of customer network.

Smart Contract and Underlying Chain Risks

• Cross-chain vulnerability: Ondo’s multi-chain deployment strategy increases the attack surface of smart contracts. Once a chain experiences a security incident, it will trigger a chain reaction of sell-offs;
• Underlying chain performance bottleneck: if Ethereum Gas fees soar or Solana Network downtime may affect the redemption experience of OUSG and weaken user confidence.

Conclusion: The Spring of RWA and the Opportunity of ONDO

With its compliance-first advantage, institutional-grade product design, and continuous optimization of token economic model, Ondo Finance has become one of the most deployable projects in the RWA track. By 2025, with the shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, entry of traditional asset management giants, and clarification of regulatory frameworks, ONDO tokens are expected to enter a value reassessment cycle.

Investor strategy advice:

• Long-term allocation: DCA (dollar cost average) into positions in the $4-5.5 range, aiming to hold until the end of 2025;
• Event tracking: Focus on ONDO’s AUM growth data, new RWA asset online, and progress in regulatory licenses;
• Risk control: Set $3.5 as the hard stop loss to avoid the impact of black swan events.

If the RWA track erupts as scheduled, ONDO will not only be the beneficiary of tokenized finance, but also potentially become the core bridge connecting TradFi and DeFi. Breaking through $10 is not out of reach, but vigilance is required for the dual test of regulation and technological risks.