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The U.S. economy is exhibiting remarkable resilience at the beginning of 2024, a resilience stemming from significant changes in economic policy. From the perspective of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, the labor market remains strong, nearly reaching maximum employment levels. At the same time, although inflation rates are still relatively high, they have significantly receded from their post-pandemic peak. Notably, the balance of economic risks appears to be undergoing a subtle shift.
In this speech, I will first analyze the current economic situation and discuss the recent trends in monetary policy. Then, I will delve into the results of our second public review of the monetary policy framework. These results have been reflected in the revised "Statement on Long-Term Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" released today.
A year ago, the U.S. economy was at a critical turning point. Our policy interest rate had been maintained in the range of 5.25%-5.5% for over a year. This cautious policy stance effectively suppressed inflation and promoted a sustainable balance between total demand and supply. At that time, the inflation rate was nearing our set target, and the labor market was gradually cooling from an overheating state. Although the risks of rising inflation had weakened, the unemployment rate had risen by nearly 1 percentage point, a situation that historically only occurs during periods of economic recession.
To address this situation, we adjusted our policy stance during the subsequent three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This decision allowed the labor market over the past year to maintain balance near maximum employment levels.
However, as we enter the new year, the U.S. economy faces new challenges. The global trading system is being reshaped due to increased tariffs, while stricter immigration policies have also brought new uncertainties. These factors will have a profound impact on the economy, requiring us to closely monitor and formulate corresponding policies.
In this complex economic environment, the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain a flexible and prudent approach, adjusting monetary policy in a timely manner based on economic data and market changes to achieve the dual goals of price stability and maximum employment. We will continue to work hard to ensure that the U.S. economy remains strong and resilient in the face of various challenges.