The US financial markets have recently experienced a series of significant events, attracting widespread attention from investors. First, with the latest speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, market expectations for a rate cut in September have significantly risen. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has climbed to 91.1%, while the likelihood of maintaining the interest rate is only 8.9%. This expectation also extends to October, with the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut approaching half.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve is also facing pressure from political levels. There are reports that Fed Governor Cook has been threatened with dismissal, but she firmly stated that she would not resign due to external pressure, demonstrating the determination of the central bank's independence.

In terms of legislation, the U.S. House of Representatives introduced a ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDC) in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, a move that could have profound implications for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.

On the other hand, important news has emerged in the international financial arena. JPMorgan Chase has reached a settlement agreement of $330 million with Malaysia regarding the 1MDB case, which not only resolves the existing disputes but also prevents potential legal conflicts. Although JPMorgan Chase has not admitted any liability, this settlement will undoubtedly affect global financial markets' perception of the bank.

These events are intertwined, reflecting the complex situation facing the current global financial system, including adjustments in monetary policy, political intervention, digital currency regulation, and cross-border financial disputes. Market participants need to closely monitor these developments in order to make informed decisions in the rapidly changing financial environment.