Analysis of Ethereum's Fundamentals and ETF Holdings

Ethereum has shown strong performance recently, with a weekly increase of 26.4%, breaking through the $2800 resistance level and approaching the $4000 mark. This rise pattern is more similar to the institution-led Bitcoin model, characterized by a combination of moderate climbs and strong surges, rather than the typical retail bull market model. This pattern allows for the digestion of profit holdings in a high-level consolidation, reducing risk indicators.

Ethereum's Major Future Upgrades and Their Impact

1. Lower the verification threshold and promote the popularization of light nodes.
2. Achieve cross-chain liquidity integration between the mainnet and L2.
3. Reconstructing the Ethereum Virtual Machine with RISC-V Architecture
4. The mainnet introduces the zkEVM plan

Despite a clearer technology upgrade path, Ethereum's Gas fee revenue, trading volume, and activity still show a significant gap compared to the peak of the bull market in 2021.

Analysis of ETH ETF Holdings

Since the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF by the US SEC on July 22, 2024, the average price of ETH has fluctuated around $2500. The average purchase cost for institutional investors is concentrated above $2800. Currently, US spot ETF institutions hold approximately 5.038 million ETH, with BlackRock accounting for more than half.

The value perception of ETH as an asset is shifting from "technical narrative" to "financial product positioning." However, unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum's supply model is more dynamic, making it difficult to achieve a "buy-out" state. Institutional holdings strategies may represent a form of "active waiting": positioning while simultaneously promoting growth points at the forefront of the ecosystem.

Ethereum Ecosystem Protocol Analysis

1. Staking / LST related agreements
2. Decentralized Lending Protocol
3. DEX
4. Re-staking / MEV Protocol
5. Stablecoin Protocol (Non-Algorithmic)
6. Re-staking LST yield aggregation protocol
7. Real Asset (RWA) Protocol

Old DeFi projects may achieve higher gains during the rise of Ether, but they require more from retail or ordinary traders. In contrast, the logic of Ether itself in this cycle is clearer, with higher certainty and liquidity.

ETH ETF Staking Analysis

BlackRock has submitted an application for an ETH ETF that introduces staking features. ETF issuers can perform ETH staking operations through multiple third-party staking service providers. Staking rewards will be regarded as income for the ETF trust, which the issuer can fully manage. However, the ETF will not aggregate the ETH it manages with ETH held by other institutions or individuals into the same public pool.

Technical Indicator Analysis

The proportion of floating profits has risen to 95%, approaching the historical high range. This highly concentrated state of floating profits often occurs during periods of local market overheating. However, considering other factors, there are currently no signs of systemic risk.

The on-chain structural changes of Bitcoin and market behavior provide indirect support for Ethereum. Despite the realization of large profits, the BTC price has not shown significant pullbacks, indicating that market buying pressure remains resilient. This "high-level承接力" has also alleviated systemic pressure in the ETH market to some extent.