#打榜优质内容# With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting on July 30 approaching, the market is almost locked in on "no rate cut," with a probability as high as 97%. In the next four FOMC meetings, it is widely expected that there will be one rate cut each in September and October, while December is not widely favored. However, if the latest dot plot only signals one rate cut this year, the market may face pressure and volatility. Investors need at least two rate cut expectations to stabilize their risk appetite.

The slow rise of the Nasdaq reflects expectations of interest rate cuts, with sentiment at a high level. Once the "no interest rate cut" is realized, funds may quickly withdraw, and both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin may adjust.
On the contrary, as long as the Fed hints at future rate cuts, the market can remain stable or even rebound slightly.
In a tense macro environment, structural opportunities in the cryptocurrency space are gradually emerging. After a pullback in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, Ethereum has shown strong performance, with clear signs of capital shifting. Wall Street is increasing its investment in Ethereum, and the short-term trend remains robust.

The macro pullback has instead become a layout window. If Ethereum can break through $4000, the altcoin season may usher in a new wave of explosion. The interest rate decision will be made at 2 AM on the 31st at the end of the month, with the previous value at 4.5% and an expectation of 4.5%, likely remaining unchanged. The volatility may be relatively large in the coming days, and the pullback is an opportunity to layout spot positions. Don't get too leveraged on contracts!