#比特币突破11万美元# Bitcoin breaks through historical highs, will the bull run cycle play out again?

Since 2011, the price of Bitcoin has consistently evolved in a repeating cycle of "halving-driven – supply-demand imbalance – bull run explosion – peak correction," with each cycle ending at a higher price peak. The double top structure in 2021 is undoubtedly a cautionary tale worth heeding.
Bitcoin first reached a milestone high in April 2021, driven by multiple positive factors including the favorable stimulus from the Cb listing, the continuation of loose monetary policy, and Grayscale's ongoing accumulation of GBTC. Market sentiment surged, and the price broke through the $60,000 mark for the first time. However, this high did not last long. In May, with the Federal Reserve signaling tapering and interest rate hikes, combined with the policy risks of China's large-scale crackdown on domestic mining operations, the Bitcoin market quickly fell into a correction, dropping to around $30,000 in less than three months, completing a substantial mid-level adjustment.
几个月后,市场在以渐消化负面情绪并触底反弹。 随着萨尔vado正式将bitter币纳为statutory 货币、、,全球通胀担忧加剧下部分投资者将其视为潜在对冲工具、以及市场对美国首个比特币期货 ETF 获批的强烈乐观预期等积极叙事和资金流入的推动下,重新聚集涨势,并在 11 月 10 日短暂冲高至历史最高点约 69,000 美元上方,随后快速後退,与 4 月份的高点共同构變成一个明显的、跨度数月的"双顶结构。 最终,这种价格创新高、链上兑现活跃、需求萎缩的三重resonance,构成一个典型的"假突破"形态。
Bitcoin quickly fell back after a brief peak, entering a downward cycle. This structure technically presents as "local new high + volume divergence + instantaneous reversal", which is a typical double top signal. It also provides an important lesson for the current market approaching historical high levels.
Will history converge?
The slope and shape of the current trend are quite similar to those just before November 2021. More importantly, multiple on-chain indicators are releasing signals of structural convergence. The latest data shows that the MVRV of long-term holders has risen to 3.3, approaching the "greed red zone" defined by Glassnode (above 3.5); the MVRV of short-term holders has also risen significantly from a low of 0.82 to 1.13, indicating that most short-term funds in the market have re-entered the profit zone. This structural change, from the perspective of behavioral finance, is a necessary condition for forming top pressure:
当绝大多数投资者重新回到余状态,兑现欲望往往也会同步增强。 但若我们从链上结构的"卖方行为压力"视角切入分析,当前短期投资者的卖方风险比率虽呈现显莾有上升,表明链上已有部分策略释放动作,但整体数值仍处于历史中等偏低水平。 这种状态反映出:尽管投资者情绪有所升温,部分资金选择在浮盈区间止盈,但整体市场尚未进入由"集体兑现动能"主导的失balance状态。 这意味着,上行空间虽受到初步压制,但市场并未失控制。 只要后续流动性持续稳定,行情仍具备延续结构性上行的条件,而并非已被推到终极顶部。
Overall, the behavior of long-term holders has always been the most reliable slow variable signal in judging Bitcoin cycles. Whether in 2013, 2017, or 2021, the end of each major bull run was almost always accompanied by a concentrated distribution from these types of investors, while new bull market cycles often begin with their reaccumulation.
The current market has entered the fifth major cycle of Bitcoin. If long-term holders have not yet started to replenish their positions for a new round, it may indicate that the market is still in the top region or is still building a high double top structure.
What will the future trend be like?
根据链上分析师 @Murphychen 的测算方法,即用 BTC 的 MVRV 来评估,因为 MVRV 本质上代表资金和成本的相互关系。 Bite 币十年来始终遵循 MVRV 和现货价格大级别背离的原则,i.e一旦出现价格更高但 MVRV 却更低的背离现象,后面指标就无法突破前高,随后价格的空间就被就被,而被, 这背后的逻辑就是随着换手成本越来越高,要继续把价格推至更高则需要指数级的资金增量。
而本轮 MVRV 最高点出现在 2024 年 3 月 11 日,BTC 价格 72,000 美元,MVRV 2.78;此后无论是 12 月 17 日还是 1 月 21 日 BTC 价格即使创出新高,但 MVRV 始终未突破 2.78。 Therefore, the first and most important step for this BTC to rush to the sea of stars is to break the MVRV back. 按目前的 RP 动态值进行测算,要求 BTC 价格可以突破 125,500 美元。